Christian McCaffrey Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Carries

San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 22, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a giant 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 2nd-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 48.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to accumulate 17.6 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has been a more integral piece of his offense's run game this year (74.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (58.4%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.7 plays per game.
The San Francisco 49ers have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to mean increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week's contest.

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