Christian McCaffrey Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Carries

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:11 PM EST

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -103 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 10th-most run-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 40.8% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to earn 15.7 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 57.1 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Christian McCaffrey has been a more important option in his team's offense this year, staying in the game for 74.5% of snaps vs just 60.0% last year.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends grade out as the best collection of DEs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

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