Christian McCaffrey Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Carries

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-154/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 4th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to notch 16.5 carries in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has garnered 57.0% of his offense's carries this year, ranking him in the 90th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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