Christian Kirk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 136.2 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Jaguars this year (a staggering 64.2 per game on average).
In this game, Christian Kirk is expected by the projections to rank in the 87th percentile among wide receivers with 8.2 targets.
With a high 23.3% Target% (85th percentile) this year, Christian Kirk stands as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in football.
Christian Kirk has been among the leading wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a fantastic 5.9 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 91st percentile.

Favors Under

This game's line suggests a rushing game script for the Jaguars, who are favored by 3.5 points.
The leading projections forecast the Jaguars as the 9th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The the Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all pass game statistics across the board.

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