Christian Kirk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Christian Kirk has run a route on 92.6% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to garner 8.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans cornerbacks profile as the best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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