Christian Kirk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 4:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-122/-107).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have played at the 8th-fastest pace in the league (context-neutralized) against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season, averaging 27.58 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Christian Kirk has run a route on 94.8% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to total 6.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the league.

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