Christian Kirk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to notch 8.5 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among wideouts.
Christian Kirk has been a more integral piece of his team's air attack this season (26.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (18.3%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Christian Kirk's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.9% to 60.6%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.