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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers

Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-165/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Christian Kirk has been used less as a potential target this season (94.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (81.9%).

THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to total 7.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: least in the NFL.

Christian Kirk's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 72.6% to 68.8%.

The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers grade out as the 4th-best group of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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