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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

Christian Kirk has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (94.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (81.9%).

THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to earn 7.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Christian Kirk has been among the leading wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a terrific 5.3 receptions per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Christian Kirk's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 72.6% to 68.4%.

The New York Jets pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.8%) vs. wide receivers this year (62.8%).

The New York Jets cornerbacks profile as the best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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