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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-156/+122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +122.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.4 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.

Christian Kirk has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (93.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (81.9%).

THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to notch 7.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Christian Kirk's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 72.6% to 68.6%.

The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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