Christian Kirk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-156/+122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.4 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
Christian Kirk has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (93.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (81.9%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to notch 7.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Christian Kirk's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 72.6% to 68.6%.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.