Christian Kirk Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-105/-126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 51.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 51.5 @ -126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
Christian Kirk has been less involved as a potential target this season (95.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (81.8%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to total 7.6 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Christian Kirk has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (67.0 per game) than he did last year (72.0 per game).
Christian Kirk's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.9% to 63.1%.
The Denver Broncos defense has conceded the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 118.0) to WRs this year.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has shown strong efficiency against wideouts this year, giving up 6.07 yards-per-target to the position: the least in the NFL.

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