Christian Kirk Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 3:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+217/-334).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -317 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -334.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
Christian Kirk's 50.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 80th percentile for wideouts.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Christian Kirk grades out in the 93rd percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.57 per game.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to be much less involved in his offense's pass attack near the end zone this week (22.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (28.1% in games he has played).
Christian Kirk has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (67.0 per game) than he did last year (72.0 per game).
Christian Kirk's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.9% to 63.1%.
The Denver Broncos defense has given up the least TDs through the air in the NFL to wideouts: 0.14 per game this year.

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