Christian Kirk Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+200/-260).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.29 seconds per snap.
Christian Kirk's 50.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 80th percentile for WRs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Christian Kirk ranks in the 96th percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.67 per game.
The New York Giants linebackers grade out as the 5th-worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to be a less important option in his offense's passing game near the end zone this week (22.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (28.1% in games he has played).
Christian Kirk has notched far fewer air yards this year (67.0 per game) than he did last year (72.0 per game).

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