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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 15

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys

Christian Kirk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+193/-285).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -269 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -285.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 139.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Christian Kirk has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 29.0% this year, which ranks in the 97th percentile among WRs.

Christian Kirk's 53.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 82nd percentile for wideouts.

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Christian Kirk has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (67.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).

Christian Kirk's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 72.6% to 68.8%.

The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

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