Chris Olave Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Chris Olave

NFL · Player Props

Chris Olave

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 9:41 PM EST

Analysis

Chris Olave Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+108/-138).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +116 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Saints offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The leading projections forecast Chris Olave to accumulate 9.7 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
Chris Olave has been among the leading WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 5.0 receptions per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.
Chris Olave's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 60.1% to 65.6%.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast Chris Olave to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing offense in this week's contest (28.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (33.0% in games he has played).
The Saints O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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