Chris Olave Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Chris Olave

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Chris Olave Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+116/-148).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +114 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.98 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Chris Olave to garner 8.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
Chris Olave's 69.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 97th percentile for wideouts.
Chris Olave has been among the leading wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.8 receptions per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has given up the 8th-highest Completion% in football (68.5%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (68.5%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 7th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers cornerbacks rank as the 6th-best group of CBs in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.