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Chris Olave Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+120/-160).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +120.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.THE BLITZ projects Chris Olave to total 8.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.Chris Olave's 68.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 97th percentile for wide receivers.Chris Olave has been among the leading wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 4.8 receptions per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.Chris Olave's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 60.5% to 74.9%.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Saints are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The New Orleans Saints have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.3 plays per game.The New Orleans Saints have played in the 7th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's game.The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.
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