Chris Olave Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Chris Olave

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM EST

Analysis

Chris Olave Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 79.5 (+100/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 72.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 79.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Saints offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The leading projections forecast Chris Olave to accumulate 9.7 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
Chris Olave has compiled a monstrous 116.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Chris Olave has been among the top WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 69.0 yards per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast Chris Olave to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing offense in this week's contest (28.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (33.0% in games he has played).
The Saints O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Chris Olave has been among the worst wide receivers in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 1st percentile.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. WRs since the start of last season, surrendering 7.78 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-fewest in football.