Chris Olave Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Chris Olave

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Chris Olave Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 68.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 69.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 68.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the New Orleans Saints as the 10th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 63.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this week's contest, Chris Olave is anticipated by the predictive model to slot into the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 10.4 targets.

Favors Under

The Saints O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Chris Olave grades out as one of the most unreliable receivers in football, hauling in a mere 57.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 18th percentile among WRs
Chris Olave's receiving effectiveness has tailed off this season, notching just 7.11 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.44 figure last season.
Chris Olave checks in as one of the bottom WRs in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.
The Falcons defense has yielded the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 129.0) to WRs this year.