Chris Olave Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Chris Olave

NFL · Player Props

Chris Olave

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Chris Olave Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+226/-352).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -349 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -352.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.
Chris Olave has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 21.4% this year, which puts him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
Chris Olave has received a whopping 42.5% of his team's air yards this year: 98th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 57.6 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this game.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
The New Orleans Saints have gone for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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