Chris Moore Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Chris Moore

NFL · Player Props

Chris Moore

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Chris Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-112/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Titans offensive scheme to skew 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
The Titans are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been something of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the league (41.6 per game) this year.
Chris Moore's 10.4 adjusted yards per target this year conveys a substantial growth in his pass-catching ability over last year's 7.4 mark.
With an exceptional 5.23 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (84th percentile) since the start of last season, Chris Moore stands as one of the leading wide receivers in the NFL in football in space.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Titans to pass on 55.7% of their downs: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The projections expect the Titans to run the 6th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Titans have run the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.9 plays per game.
Chris Moore's 6.0% Target Share this year represents a substantial drop-off in his pass game volume over last year's 14.3% mark.
After averaging 43.0 air yards per game last year, Chris Moore has seen a big decline this year, currently averaging 32.0 per game.

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