Chris Godwin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Chris Godwin

NFL · Player Props

Chris Godwin

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Chris Godwin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-124/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 61.5% of their plays: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The predictive model expects Chris Godwin to notch 8.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 84th percentile among wideouts.
Chris Godwin has been a key part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 22.4% this year, which ranks in the 81st percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive blueprint to skew 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
The 9th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (just 56.7 per game on average).
Chris Godwin's receiving skills have worsened this season, notching just 5.4 adjusted receptions vs 6.8 last season.
Chris Godwin's 69.0% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies an impressive regression in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 74.7% rate.
The Houston cornerbacks profile as the 3rd-best collection of CBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

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