Chris Godwin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Chris Godwin

NFL · Player Props

Chris Godwin

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Chris Godwin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-115/-119).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +104 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -119.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Chris Godwin to notch 8.3 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Chris Godwin to be a much bigger part of his team's pass game this week (21.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (15.1% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on just 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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