Chris Conley Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Chris Conley

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 17, 2022 5:06 PM EST

Analysis

Chris Conley Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+434/-985).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -984 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -985.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has allowed the 7th-most TDs through the air in the NFL to WRs: 1.00 per game this year.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have incorporated play action on 30.3% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 52.8 plays per game.
Chris Conley has been not been very involved his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which puts him in the 1st percentile among WRs.
Chris Conley has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (14.0 per game) than he did last year (21.0 per game).
Chris Conley's 8.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 17.5.