Chigoziem Okonkwo Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Chigoziem Okonkwo

NFL · Player Props

Chigoziem Okonkwo

TE · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 3, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Chigoziem Okonkwo Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans offensive approach to skew 1.1% more towards the passing game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
A passing game script is implied by the Titans being a -3-point underdog in this game.
The model projects Chigoziem Okonkwo to total 4.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Chigoziem Okonkwo's 17.3% Target Rate this season marks a remarkable progression in his air attack volume over last season's 10.8% mark.
As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Pittsburgh's safety corps has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Titans to pass on 50.8% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
At the present time, the 5th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Titans.
Chigoziem Okonkwo's 66.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this year illustrates a noteable reduction in his receiving talent over last year's 71.9% mark.

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