Chigoziem Okonkwo Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Chigoziem Okonkwo

NFL · Player Props

Chigoziem Okonkwo

TE · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 8:02 PM EST

Analysis

Chigoziem Okonkwo Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.9% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Our trusted projections expect Chigoziem Okonkwo to garner 4.0 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Chigoziem Okonkwo has been a much bigger part of his team's passing game this year (16.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (10.8%).

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Titans to be the 3rd-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 52.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Titans to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Titans this year (just 52.0 per game on average).
The Titans offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all air attack metrics across the board.
Chigoziem Okonkwo's 67.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this season indicates a meaningful decline in his receiving talent over last season's 71.9% rate.

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