Chigoziem Okonkwo Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Chigoziem Okonkwo

NFL · Player Props

Chigoziem Okonkwo

TE · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Chigoziem Okonkwo Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+102/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Titans offensive strategy to lean 2.5% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
The Titans are a heavy 13.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The projections expect Chigoziem Okonkwo to total 5.2 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
Chigoziem Okonkwo has been a more integral piece of his team's pass game this year (16.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (10.8%).
The Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (77.6%) vs. tight ends this year (77.6%).

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the least pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 56.1% pass rate.
The leading projections forecast the Titans to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
The Tennessee O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Chigoziem Okonkwo's 66.6% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a noteable diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 71.9% rate.

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