Chigoziem Okonkwo Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Chigoziem Okonkwo

NFL · Player Props

Chigoziem Okonkwo

TE · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Chigoziem Okonkwo Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
A throwing game script is implied by the Titans being a -5-point underdog in this week's contest.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense this year: 6th-most in football.
In this week's game, Chigoziem Okonkwo is anticipated by the model to finish in the 81st percentile among tight ends with 5.0 targets.
Chigoziem Okonkwo has been a more integral piece of his team's passing game this year (17.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (10.8%).

Favors Under

At the moment, the 4th-least pass-oriented team in football (57.6% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Titans.
The predictive model expects the Titans to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.6 plays per game.
The the Tennessee Titans O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Chigoziem Okonkwo's 20.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year shows a a significant decline in his receiving ability over last year's 27.0 mark.

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