Chigoziem Okonkwo Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Chigoziem Okonkwo

NFL · Player Props

Chigoziem Okonkwo

TE · Tennessee Titans

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Chigoziem Okonkwo Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+329/-617).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +343 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +329.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Chigoziem Okonkwo to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack near the end zone this week (16.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.1% in games he has played).
Chigoziem Okonkwo has been responsible for a monstrous 10.2% of his offense's air yards this year: 81st percentile among TEs.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 52.8 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (59.3%) to TEs this year (59.3%).
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers rank as the 6th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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