Chigoziem Okonkwo Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Chigoziem Okonkwo

NFL · Player Props

Chigoziem Okonkwo

TE · Tennessee Titans

Receiving TD

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:41 PM EST

Analysis

Chigoziem Okonkwo Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+252/-410).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +265 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +252.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Chigoziem Okonkwo to be a more important option in his offense's passing game near the end zone this week (13.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (8.3% in games he has played).
Chigoziem Okonkwo has accounted for a whopping 10.7% of his offense's air yards this year: 81st percentile among tight ends.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers rank as the 4th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.7 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans O-line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Chigoziem Okonkwo has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching just 61.6% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 12th percentile.

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