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Chase Edmonds

Chase Edmonds Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 1

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Chase Edmonds Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+279/-478).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -463 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -478.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
  • The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
  • The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.
  • The Miami Dolphins have incorporated some form of misdirection on 56.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
  • Opposing teams have rushed for the least touchdowns in football (0.53 per game) vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season.
  • The New England Patriots defensive tackles project as the 5th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
  • The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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