Chase Edmonds Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Chase Edmonds

NFL · Player Props

Chase Edmonds

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Chase Edmonds Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 63.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Chase Edmonds to earn 3.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
Chase Edmonds has been a key part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 12.6% since the start of last season, which places him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 119.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Chase Edmonds's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 84.3% to 68.6%.

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