Chase Edmonds Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Chase Edmonds

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Chase Edmonds Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.8% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
Chase Edmonds has totaled a whopping 8.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Chase Edmonds's skills in grinding out extra yardage have gotten better this season, averaging 9.50 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 6.98 figure last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 57.0 plays per game.
Chase Edmonds has been a much smaller part of his team's pass attack this year (7.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (13.4%).
The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.