Chase Claypool Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Chase Claypool

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Chase Claypool Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+105/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Chase Claypool has been used less as a potential target this year (93.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (81.8%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Chase Claypool has been among the best WRs in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 4.0 receptions per game while grading out in the 75th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.4%) to WRs this year (62.4%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have incorporated play action on a measly 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.