Chase Claypool Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Chase Claypool

NFL · Player Props

Chase Claypool

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Chase Claypool Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+352/-687).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -658 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -687.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Chase Claypool's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 58.3% to 69.4%.
The Miami Dolphins cornerbacks profile as the 5th-worst CB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Chicago Bears O-line has given their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 123.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Chase Claypool has compiled far fewer air yards this season (65.0 per game) than he did last season (81.0 per game).
Chase Claypool's 41.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 50.0.

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