Chase Claypool Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Chase Claypool

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Chase Claypool Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+266/-446).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +273 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +266.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a big 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 64.4 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
Chase Claypool has accrued a whopping 81.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 84th percentile among wide receivers.
Chase Claypool's 50.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 80th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Chase Claypool has been among the worst possession receivers in football, catching a measly 57.4% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 11th percentile among WRs
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 6th-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have utilized play action on a measly 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.