Chase Brown Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Chase Brown

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Touchdowns

Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Chase Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-140/+123).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.0% of their chances: the greatest clip on the slate this week.
At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense in football in the red zone (62.1% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Cincinnati Bengals.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (36.4 per game) since the start of last season.
When it comes to air yards, Chase Brown grades out in the lofty 81st percentile among running backs since the start of last season, totaling an impressive 1.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).

Favors Under

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have only 124.7 offensive plays run: the 3rd-fewest among all games this week.
Chase Brown has garnered 54.5% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
Chase Brown's 14.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 22.5.
The Cincinnati O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Chase Brown has rushed for 0.32 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (79th percentile).