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Chase Brown

Chase Brown Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots

Chase Brown Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Bengals being a giant 9-point favorite in this week's contest.

While Chase Brown has garnered 16.9% of his team's carries in games he has played last year, the leading projections forecast him to be much more involved in Cincinnati's running game in this week's game at 35.4%.

Chase Brown rates as one of the leading running backs in the NFL at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 3.27 yards-after-contact last year while grading out in the 84th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Bengals as the 4th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.6% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have just 123.8 plays on offense run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may drop.

The Patriots defense owns the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing ground games last year, allowing just 3.59 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

As it relates to the safeties' role in defending against the run, New England's safety corps has been exceptional last year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

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