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Chase Brown

Chase Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots

Chase Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+136/-178).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +144 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +136.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may drop.

The predictive model expects Chase Brown to notch 3.2 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.

Chase Brown rates as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL among running backs, completing an exceptional 93.3% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, checking in at the 77th percentile.

The Patriots pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (87.6%) to running backs last year (87.6%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Bengals being a giant 9-point favorite in this week's contest.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have just 123.8 plays on offense run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.

With a high 7.5% Route Participation Rate (11th percentile) last year, Chase Brown ranks among the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads in the league.

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