Chase Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Chase Brown

NFL · Player Props

Chase Brown

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Chase Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 60.6% of their plays: the 9th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are forecasted by the predictive model to call 67.2 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
With a terrific 100.0% Adjusted Catch% (100th percentile) this year, Chase Brown places among the best possession receivers in the NFL among RBs.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has yielded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (93.6%) to running backs this year (93.6%).

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this game, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach.
The 7th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Bengals this year (a measly 55.9 per game on average).
With a top-tier 4.7% Route% (14th percentile) this year, Chase Brown has been among the RB receiving threats with the biggest workloads in the league.
The Cincinnati O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all passing attack stats across the board.
As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Minnesota's unit has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the league.

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