Chase Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Chase Brown

NFL · Player Props

Chase Brown

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Chase Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bengals as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Chase Brown has run a route on 56.2% of his team's passing plays this year, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs.
This week, Chase Brown is expected by the projection model to place in the 93rd percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.8 targets.
With a fantastic 24.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (88th percentile) this year, Chase Brown ranks among the best pass-game RBs in the league.
Chase Brown's 95.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a noteable boost in his receiving skills over last season's 81.1% rate.

Favors Under

This week's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Bengals, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.
The projections expect this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 120.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.
Chase Brown has notched a whopping 1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile when it comes to RBs. (That might not seem too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Chase Brown's 4.4 adjusted yards per target this year marks a noteworthy diminishment in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 5.3 figure.

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