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Chase Brown

Chase Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots

Chase Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may drop.

The predictive model expects Chase Brown to notch 3.2 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.

Chase Brown rates as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL among running backs, completing an exceptional 93.3% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, checking in at the 77th percentile.

Chase Brown is positioned as one of the most efficient pass-catchers in the league among running backs, averaging a terrific 8.67 adjusted yards-per-target last year while grading out in the 86th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Bengals being a giant 9-point favorite in this week's contest.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have just 123.8 plays on offense run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.

With a high 7.5% Route Participation Rate (11th percentile) last year, Chase Brown ranks among the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads in the league.

As it relates to air yards, Chase Brown ranks in just the 7th percentile among running backs last year, with just -4.0 per game.

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