CeeDee Lamb Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Touchdowns

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 8, 2026 9:12 PM EST

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+102/-104).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the league in the red zone (59.2% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Cowboys.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
With a top-tier 30.4% Red Zone Target Rate (97th percentile) this year, CeeDee Lamb has been as one of the wideouts with the most usage near the end zone in the NFL.
After totaling 112.0 air yards per game last year, CeeDee Lamb has seen marked improvement this year, currently pacing 121.0 per game.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 9-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.28 seconds per play.
The Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (61.5%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (61.5%).

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