CeeDee Lamb Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 17, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-158/+124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -158.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Cowboys offensive scheme to skew 3.2% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
The Chargers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (40.8 per game) this year.
The projections expect CeeDee Lamb to total 8.5 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
With a stellar 5.4 adjusted catches per game (90th percentile) this year, CeeDee Lamb ranks as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers in the league.
CeeDee Lamb's 76.8% Adjusted Catch% this season marks a a noteable progression in his pass-catching ability over last season's 71.7% mark.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to run the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.7 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
CeeDee Lamb has been a much smaller part of his offense's passing game this year (22.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (28.8%).

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