CeeDee Lamb Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+112/-154).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -137 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to earn 8.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
CeeDee Lamb has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 28.3% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
CeeDee Lamb has been among the best wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 6.1 receptions per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 11th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Jets pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (60.6%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (60.6%).
The New York Jets linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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