CeeDee Lamb Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 2:46 AM UTC

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-115/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to earn 9.8 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
CeeDee Lamb has been a much bigger part of his team's pass game this season (33.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (20.3%).
CeeDee Lamb has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a terrific 5.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The Cowboys rank as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 55.5% pass rate.
CeeDee Lamb's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.2% to 57.8%.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have incorporated play action on a mere 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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