CeeDee Lamb Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+118/-157).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -157.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys will be rolling with backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cowboys are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 138.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to be a much smaller piece of his team's pass game this week (29.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (34.6% in games he has played).
CeeDee Lamb's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.2% to 58.6%.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (56.6%) versus WRs this year (56.6%).
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks project as the best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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