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CeeDee Lamb

CeeDee Lamb Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders

CeeDee Lamb Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to use backup QB Cooper Rush in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.45 seconds per play.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to notch 9.1 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among WRs.

The Dallas Cowboys offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.3% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to be a less important option in his team's pass attack this week (26.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (33.3% in games he has played).

CeeDee Lamb's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.2% to 52.3%.

The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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