CeeDee Lamb Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+100/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 141.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to notch 9.5 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
CeeDee Lamb has been much more involved in his offense's air attack this year (29.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (19.7%).
CeeDee Lamb's play as a receiver has improved this season, averaging 5.7 yards per game compared to a measly 4.6 last season.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Cowboys rank as the 6th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 55.8% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has surrendered the lowest Completion% in football (59.6%) vs. wideouts this year (59.6%).
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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