CeeDee Lamb Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+102/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 139.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to garner 9.1 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
CeeDee Lamb has been a much bigger part of his team's passing offense this season (29.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (19.7%).
CeeDee Lamb's receiving talent has improved this year, notching 5.6 yards per game compared to just 4.6 last year.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a massive 17.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 10th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.5%) versus WRs this year (63.5%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season.

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